Cyclone Cook Update #1
Reliable computer models are fine tuning their forecasts and the latest on where Cook may make landfall shifts it closer to Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula and sends even more rain over flood hit Bay of Plenty.
Both European and American models are this morning (and were last night) placing the centre of Cook (which will be an ex-cyclone when it makes landfall in New Zealand late Thursday) somewhere around Tauranga or even the Coromandel Peninsula, says WeatherWatch.co.nz
“Yesterday the centre was likely to make landfall in Whakatane or even further east towards Gisborne. This is still possible also.
“This is about an 80 to 250km difference and is very normal when a tropical storm approaches any country. This shows that as the models fine tune where Cook will make landfall precisely it may still shift a bit, although the distance it may shift usually reduces as we get closer to the time.
“This last firming up of the models places far more people at risk of severe weather over the following two days.
“It’s very important to note the severe weather around the centre of Cook extends for about 150kms to 200kms roughly – so the further west Cook goes the more likely major centres like Auckland, Tauranga, Hamilton and eastern Waikato towns will be hit by a burst of gales and very heavy rain.
“Often the worst of the weather is in the south eastern quadrant, so again a more western landfall torwards Tauranga might see even heavier rain fall in already flooded eastern Bay of Plenty.”
– See more at: Sunlive